As the presidential election year approaches, you may be wondering if the stock market will go up or down based on who is elected.
While it is certainly possible that one candidate or another may be more or less favorable for the overall market, at Fenimore we remain focused on analysis at the individual company level.
That said, as reflected in the table below, the historical data on stock market performance in past election years is interesting:
- Stocks have advanced in 19 of 23 election years beginning in 1928
- The average election year gain for the S&P 500 Index has been 11.28%
- There is no clear pattern of market performance being driven by which major party candidate wins the election
The table contains the year-by-year detail. In short – while "past performance is no guarantee of future results," history suggests that investors should not make dramatic changes in anticipation of one candidate or another winning a presidential election.
Regardless of what happens in the political arena, FAM will continue to follow our business-first approach as we conduct in-depth, independent, firsthand research.