Our lessons learned in 2020 would take up volumes, but there is an axiom that was strongly confirmed: The stock market is not the economy.
- Because the market is a discounting mechanism, there is often a disconnect between the performance of stocks and the current economic environment. In 2020, that disconnect became a gaping chasm with the market reaching several new highs despite GDP and employment figures that rivaled the Great Depression.
- Though the initial rollout of the approved vaccines is moving slower than expected, increased immunization and a second stimulus package should support, if not accelerate, a return to more normal economic activity.
- Even more, some industries may experience catch-up demand that could lead to periods of over earning that would be dangerous to extrapolate.
Our research team will continue to take the long view and look for opportunities to invest more in what we believe are quality businesses — both among our current holdings and in enterprises we’ve admired and desired to own but were too richly priced for us.